Game Hunting in England’s Premier League – NYTimes.com

At the Aston Villa game in Birmingham, Steve James, 47, took time out from chanting obscene remarks at the visiting Chelsea players to observe that because the game started early in the afternoon, the fans had had less drinking time than they might have liked.

Take himself.

“I have only had 11 beers so far,” he said. “I met my mates at a bar at 8 in the morning and had a bacon and egg sandwich and four pints of cider,” cider being an alcoholic drink here. “On the train, I had a few more. Then I had six in a bar when I got here, and a couple at halftime.”

Except for his addition problems, James did not seem drunk at all. “I don’t like to be uncontrollable or not know what I’m doing,” he said. “I have my limit.”

What is that?

“I have no idea,” he said.

via Game Hunting in England’s Premier League – NYTimes.com.

The Brooklyn Investor: The Greatest Investment Book Ever Written

“Any time you extend your bankroll so far that if you lost, it would really distress you, you probably will lose.  It’s tough to play your best under that much pressure.”

This is exactly what Joel Greenblatt said in an essay soon after the financial crisis.  He was talking about how many people thought the error in their investment was that they didn’t foresee the crisis and so didn’t sell stocks before the collapse.  Greenblatt insisted that this couldn’t be done anyway and that the real error was that these people simply owned too much stocks.  If you own so much stock that a 50% decline is going to scare you and make you sell out at precisely the wrong moment (and as Greenblatt says, and Brunson says in this book, you are almost guaranteed to sell out at the bottom), then you owned too much stock to begin with.  Greenblatt said the mistake wasn’t that they didn’t sell before the crisis, but that they sold in panic at the bottom.  This was the error. So the key defense against inevitable (and unpredictable) bear markets is to not extend yourself so much that it will distress you when the markets do fall (and they will).  Buffett says that if it would upset you if a stock you bought declined by 50%, then you simply shouldn’t be investing in stocks.  As I like to say all the time, more money is probably lost every year in trying to avoid losing money in the stock market than actual losses in the stock market! via The Brooklyn Investor: The Greatest Investment Book Ever Written.

Old Boston Photosets

The Boston Public Library has an amazing collection of photos online at Flickr including the Leslie Jones Collection.

Kid lost, and then found from Crime/Police: Miscellaneous

Police inspector Tobin and Goodman …not sure I would trust these guys…also from Crime/Police: Miscellaneous

Boston Police Liquor Squad dressed up in evening clothes for visits to Boston hotels on New Year’s Eve from Crime/Police: Prohibition

Charlie Toth and Bozo Snyder’s bathing girls at L Street bath house from Sports: Swimming

Visiting dignitaries from Japan in People: Miscellaneous & Unidentified

And one bonus piece from the Old Boston Photograph Collection (another BPL collection online at flickr): Birthplace of Benjamin Franklin, Milk Street

What are questions?

You’ve probably heard it said that someone can’t be taught until they’re ready to learn. I’ve heard it said that way too. It makes sense, and my experience tells me it’s mostly true. Why though? Why can’t someone be taught until they’re ready to learn?

Clay explained it in a way that I’ve never heard before and I’ll never forget again. Paraphrased slightly, he said: “Questions are places in your mind where answers fit. If you haven’t asked the question, the answer has nowhere to go. It hits your mind and bounces right off. You have to ask the question – you have to want to know – in order to open up the space for the answer to fit.”

via What are questions? – (37signals).

I need to ask more questions.

Otamatone Deluxe: Instrument of the Future

For some reason, lost on me, I’ve been seeing the ad below on web sites everywhere. There are several intriguing aspects to this ad. “From Japan.” The mysterious “”ALEXCIOUS” tagline.

There is a gentleman in a lab coat who appears to be a musical ninja.

This was a rabbit hole I needed to jump down. A few discoveries:

  • ALEXCIOUS is a site devoted to vending items from Japan. “Discover the Beauty of Japan” As an admirer of Japan, I appreciate their raison d’etre.
  • The Otamatone is a musical instrument, shaped like a musical note with a smiling face.
  • For vibrato, squeeze the cheeks.
  • The Otamatone Deluxe costs ¥6,980 JPY or $86.
  • An excellent informational video has been provided
  • Omatone is running a video submission competition with high quality entries. My personal favorite below:

Mel Kiper’s Mother’s Day

I saw this ad on ESPN. I realize the NFL draft started today and that means Mel Kiper’s talking head appears everywhere but this still feels like a reach.

Everybody gets what they want

The revealed preference of the polity is to resist losses for incumbent creditors much more than it is to seek gains. In a world of perfect certainty, given a choice between recession and boom, the polity would choose boom. But in the real world, the polity faces great uncertainty. The policies that might engender a boom are not guaranteed to succeed. They carry with them a short-to-medium-term risk of inflation, perhaps even a significant inflation if things don’t go as planned. The polity prefers inaction to bearing this risk.

via interfluidity » Depression is a choice.

Interfluidity’s post reminded me of an interview with Ed Seykota, an early developer of computerized trading systems.

Win or lose, everybody gets what they want out of the market. Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.

I know one trader who seems to get in near the start of every substantial bull move and works his $10 thousand up to about a quarter of a million in a couple of months. Then he changes his personality and loses it all back again. This process repeats like clockwork. Once I traded with him, but got out when his personality changed. I doubled my money, while he wiped out as usual. I told him what I was doing, and even paid him a management fee. He just couldn’t help himself. I don’t think he can do it any differently. He wouldn’t want to. He gets a lot of excitement, he gets to be a martyr, he gets sympathy from his friends, and he gets to be the center of attention. Also, possibly, he may be more comfortable relating to people if he is on their financial plane. On some level, I think he is really getting what he wants.

I think that if people look deeply enough into their trading patterns, they find that, on balance, including all their goals, they are really getting what they want, even though they may not understand it or want to admit it.

A doctor friend of mine tells a story about a cancer patient who used her condition to demand attention and, in general, to dominate others around her. As an experiment prearranged with her family, the doctor told her a shot was available which would cure her. She constantly found excuses to avoid appearing for the shot and eventually avoided it entirely. Perhaps her political position was more important than her life. People’s trading performance probably reflects their priorities more than they would like to admit.

Schwager, Jack D. (2012-01-09). Market Wizards: Interviews with Top Traders (Kindle Locations 3691-3705). John Wiley and Sons. Kindle Edition. 

Both these pieces suggest that perhaps we look too hard for the obstacles blocking our path to success whether it be in investing, our career, or in the workings of our political systems. We may be railing the market or against the machinations of an elite, exploiter class while failing to examine the revealed preferences inherent in the situation.

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